Ahmedabad: Whether the city of Ahmedabad will have 25,000 cases or 8 lakh cases by the end of May will depend on case doubling rate, said AMC Commissioner Vijay Nehra in his online briefing. 'If there's 8-day doubling rate of Covid19 cases, there will be 10,000 cases instead of 50,000 on May 15 and 50,000 cases instead of 8 lakh cases on May 31. To achieve 10-day doubling rate is very difficult to achieve, but it achieved, there shall be 25,000 cases at the end of the month of May instead of 8 lakh cases.'
'On April 17, the city had 600 cases and on April 20 the figure was 1200. Case doubling rate was three days. Then our hard work has brought down the doubling rate to 4 days at present. If present doubling rate continues, then till May 15 we can see 50,000 cases and on May 31, 8 lakh cases, this is if case doubling rate is fourth days. However hard work pays. By the end of lockdown period, we will take cased doubling rate down to 7-8 days. If we can bring down doubling rate from 4th to 8th day, it's an achievement that only South Korea and few other countries have achieved. If we can achieve that the number of cases will be 10,000 instead of 50,000 on May 15 and 50,000 instead of 8 lakh on May 31st.'
'If we achieve 10th day doubling rate which is very difficult to achieve, we can see only 7,000 cases against 50,000 by May 15 and 20-25,000 cases instead of 8 lakh by the end of May. We are confident to achieve 7-8 day doubling rate. If people extend full cooperation, then we can achieve very difficult target of 10 days doubling and therefore around 7,000 cases on May 15.'
So in one scenario, we can have 8 lakh cases on May 31 and in other scenario we can have 20,000 to 25,000 cases. We can at least achieve 7-9 days case doubling rate by the end of lockdown period on 3rd May.
Post 3rd May, after the end of lockdown, maintaining doubling rate and making it better will be difficult.
Due to AMC's Chasing the Virus drive, everyday 15-20% increase in number of cases detected is expected.
DeshGujarat
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